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However, in the run-up to the U.S. election, evidence indicates that the agreement is not keeping Trump`s promise.1 The latest official data show that China is not up to expectations and is only reaching 53 percent of the expected purchase target by September 2020. Indeed, Chinese imports of U.S. goods are now weaker than before Trump`s trade war with a flash of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018. Soybeans are a good example of the anti-Trump reaction to trade policy. Before the trade war, they accounted for nearly 60% of U.S. agricultural exports to China. China did not choose soybeans for random retaliation. Eight of the top 10 soybean-producing countries voted for Trump in 2016, including many major Swing States.8 Surveys of consumer mood and small business confidence showed a sharp drop in uncertainty due to the trade war in August 2019.

[219] [220] The Purchasing Managers` Index for Manufacturing at the Institute of Supply Management fell in August for the first time since January 2016; The ISM cited several leaders who expressed concern about the continuing trade war and spoke of the contraction of export orders and the challenges of relocating their supply chains from China. The ihS Markit Purchasing Managers` Index for manufacturing also fell in August for the first time since September 2009. [221] On the day of the release of the ISM report, Trump tweeted: “China`s supply chain will collapse and businesses, jobs and money will disappear!” [222] [223] Analysts have speculated that the trade war could influence the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as tariffs have had a negative impact on farmers, a major district for Trump. [241] [242] Analysts have also speculated about the impact of the trade war on Xi Jinping with regard to the internal political pressures to which he was subjected. [242] Overall, U.S. exports of manufactured goods to China did not develop well in 2020 (Chart 2). In September, exports were 17% below pre-trade levels. Compared to purchase commitments, the manufacturing sector has achieved only 56% of the seasonally adjusted target for 2020. U.S.

Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said work on the follow-up negotiations will depend on how China meets commitments made in the initial phase. On August 14, 2019, the Dow fell 800 points, in part due to rising trade tensions between the United States and China. [236] Nine days later, on August 23, the Dow fell 623 points on the day Trump informally ordered U.S. companies to immediately seek alternatives to do business in China. [237] [238] At the end of 2019, stock markets reached record levels after increasing due to the agreement between the United States and China on the signing of the first phase of a trade agreement. [239] [240] People`s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China, has stated that China will be able to withstand the trade war and that Trump`s policy concerns American consumers. [269] Hong Kong Economics Professor Lawrence J.